Steady as she Goes Down, September 2010 Real Estate Market Notes

After what seemed like an agonizingly long time, IndyMac/OneWest Bank assigned me an REO listing a couple of weeks ago.  The property is presently undergoing a personal property eviction, so we won’t get started on the BPO for a little while yet.  Even though I’ve sold lots of houses in the area, the market is ever-changing and it’s important to keep up on the latest fluctuations.  The bank’s automated system wanted me to go out and do a weekly occupancy check and report back – silly, maybe, on a house known to be vacant but I have a policy of checking every property weekly regardless.  I thought I would make best use of the trip by also going and checking out the competition, and seeing some of the recently sold comps.

I should mention, this is a rural area – pretty much farm country, or horse country maybe.  Given that its a rural setting, it’s always a challenge to find any two properties that are actually “comparable” – since there is such a wide variance in age, style and quality of construction, lot size and utility, access, distance to urban amenities, and of course good old-fashioned economic obsolescence courtesy of amenities like high tension power lines and noise pollution from nearby highways and bi-ways.  But if you look at enough “comparables” you can get a pretty good idea of a subject property’s value by using back-of-the-hand matched-pair analysis and my personal favorite, the principal of substitution.

I checked out over a dozen properties yesterday, and I also e-mailed a few agents to ask about what kind of activity they had had on their listings – offers, threats of offers, inquiries, etc.  One of the agents wrote back and told me something pretty interesting – he’d been on the market a couple of weeks, and they had four offers.  The seller had rejected three of these offers and was negotiating the fourth.  All four offers had come in under asking price.

It’s kind of unusual to have a multiple offer situation and have all offers come in under asking price, to say the least.  It’s especially interesting when, of all the dozen or so houses I had gone to see, this particular house was the one I thought was by far the nicest/best deal – but everyone is coming in low?  Granted, it was also the most expensive on the list – but was the newest, had the least deferred maintenance, highest functional utility, etc. – and it was not all that much more expensive than the competition.

And the agent for this property added a bit of commentary which was totally unsolicited:  “Definitely like a big slowdown.”

Well that’s a nice juicy anecdote!  It does jibe with my own experience, which is that I have listings that are languishing, attracting no offers (even though fairly priced against the comps) – or attracting low-ball offers.  So what’s going on here, has the market fallen off a cliff since the expiration of the federal home-buyer tax credits?

Nationally, I do believe that is the case.  NAR (the National Association of Realtors, natch) reported in July that nationwide, home resales were down 27%.  I don’t believe they have posted their August numbers yet.  But how are we doing locally?  I have some freshly crunched numbers for you, served up hot and fresh:

Santa Clara County

SantaClara201008.jpg

Santa Cruz County

SantaCruz201008.jpg

Monterey County

Monterey201008.jpg

As you can see, in each of the counties that we service, the median home price is up year-over-year (especially so in Santa Clara and Monterey counties) – and the amount of “active” inventory (not under contract/pending sale) is down considerably in each county.  But, crucially – so is the number of sales.  We can clearly see that year-over-year, the sales volume in all three counties has dropped considerably.  One can take heart by looking at month-over-month sales numbers and see that at least in Santa Cruz and Monterey counties there were more closings in August than in July, but I have long felt that month-by-month numbers are much less useful than year-over-year.

It’s clear that the median price is rising in all counties that we service – but I would caution that this number does not mean much, as it continues to be the mix of homes that are selling which is driving the price “rise” – neighborhood-by-neighborhood, I don’t see much in the way of upward price pressure – quite the opposite, in fact.  While our “Days on Market” is generally pretty healthy across all three counties, I see the declining sales volume as strong evidence which, when coupled with anecdotes from myself and other agents, indicate that we may be setting ourselves up for a grim autumn and winter selling season.

What do you think?  Comments are welcome!

Lenders stepping up foreclosures?

I suppose I’m like a lot of REO Agents in my area in one respect at least – my inventory is way down from the level I was at a year or 18 months ago  Some REO agents talk about the “Kings and Queens of REO” – that is, those listing agents who seem to get a very disproportionate number of listings…dozens, or hundreds, even.

I never had hundreds, but I did use to have dozens – I probably had an inventory of over 40 listings back then, which probably doesn’t make me an REO King but perhaps a Duke or a Count, and certainly one of the busiest agents in my market area.

crown.jpg

For a while, though, the listings were few and far between.  I used to get a couple of assignments a week pretty steady; for the first half of this year, it was more like a couple of assignments per month. Yeah, there was a bit of belt tightening here at the Silicon REO Group!

Over the past month or so, however, it’s been like the good ol’ days – I’ve had about eight new assignments in the past month.  So, what gives?  Have the lenders resumed their previously alacrity with pulling the trigger at the trustee’s sale? Does this mean a flood of new distressed REO inventory is about to hit the market, even as the market is hitting the skids?

Or – maybe this is not actually a flood of new distressed REO inventory.  For example, I got two assignments just today.  You know the drill – here’s your assignment, congratulations, go and do an occupancy check within 24 hours or we’ll pull it from you.

So I head down to the first one – and find that it was vacant and had already been re-keyed – and how long ago?  No way to know for sure, but there was mail on the kitchen counter dated from mid-February of this year, about six months ago. The second new listing was miles and miles away, located deep up in the woods.  I had trouble finding it; I spotted a neighbor and asked her if she knew where the property was.  “I don’t know that address” she said – and she didn’t know who the former mortgagor was when I gave his name.  “Maybe it’s that vacant house down the street?  It’s been vacant for a couple of years.”

Yeah, that’s a lot of fun – deep in the woods, marching up a gated driveway with no address on it, performing an occupancy check at an address where whoever is living there might not take too kindly to being disturbed.

Lonely Driveway

It turns out, though, that I had the right address – there was no house number on the property, but on the kitchen counter of this place there was a bunch of mail with the subject property’s address and the former mortgagor’s name.

But I digress.  Point is, in my own business, I’ve suddenly seen a nice (well, nice for me) showering of inventory.  Given today’s findings, might we be seeing the emergence into daylight of some of this much ballyhooed shadow inventory?

Who knows?  Funny thing about this business is that it’s really hard to take some anecdotal evidence and determine a significant trend from it.  Actually, it must be pretty easy, since that happens all the time – Realtors especially are prone to making sweeping generalizations about the state of the national real estate market based on whatever happened to them with their latest buyer/escrow/seller, or whatever.

But not me.  The assignments could (and in all likelihood, probably will) dry up tomorrow and I’ll be left tending to these new 8 and the other dozen or so I had before them and trying to get them sold – which is going to take some aggressive pricing, since as I mentioned earlier, the market is demonstrably weakening (and I have more than just anecdotal evidence about that one!).

As a very wise Realtor once said:  you have to make hay while the sun is shining.  Or maybe it was a very wise farmer who said that – but whoever said it, there was definitely wisdom in those words.  I’ll just keep my head down and work like crazy to beat my deadlines and bring in offers as close to BPO value as possible and get ’em closed on schedule to the very best of my ability.

And this I solemnly swear.

 

Update on Teresa Giudice / Real Housewives New Jersey

So I’m sitting back last night watching the tube, Bachelorette had just finished and Real Housewives of New Jersey (RHNJ) was just starting up. I think it was during the first commercial break when my wife exclaimed, “Oh look, Teresa is auctioning off her stuff!”

A couple-few blog posts ago I discussed how Teresa Giudice’s mansion was getting foreclosed on – which, by the way, Teresa hotly denied an episode or two back of RHNJ, during her shameless tussle with Danielle about…who can remember or care what it was about, but it was shameless for sure.

auction_gavel2.jpg

Anyhow, my wife pointed me to an article on Yahoo News I think it was saying that Teresa’s belongings are going up for auction. It’s a sordid story there too I’m afraid – they’re accused of hiding assets (a real shocker) from the bankruptcy trustee, etc. Funny how one minute they’re not getting foreclosed on, then they’re filing for bankruptcy, the next minute Teresa is getting an almost-as-gaudy-as-it-is-gigantic yellow diamond ring from her husband for their 10th anniversary

And then the news that they’re auctioning off countless kitschy items from their vast collection of rash and extravagant impulse purchases. The laundry list of goods going up for auction include, apparently, a grand piano, a suit of armor, a jet boat, antique-style pool table, and much more – visit the auction company’s web site for the catalog. The aforementioned yellow diamond ring is not on the list – too bad, I was hoping I could get a deal on it for my lady!

Interestingly enough, I am checking the public records on this and I don’t see that a notice of default has been filed on the Guidice’s house – so maybe it’s just in pre-foreclosure. For those who care, they re-financed in June of 2008, the loan is $1,720,000 and it’s financed at 7.25% for 50 years. That’s only $10,391 a month – what, and they can’t keep up the payments also on their Escalade? Sheesh.

Cash for Keys: Fun and Games

So a few weeks back, my favorite REO client assigned me a new property. So I waited a few hours before going out to do the occupancy check, because on weekdays I like to go in the early evenings, hopefully after people have come back from work. When I knocked on the door, it was answered by a friendly looking-and-sounding guy, and I delivered him the news, as tactfully as a diplomat, that unfortunately the home had been foreclosed on.

He explained that he was a tenant and he had no idea the home had been foreclosed on. The home had been listed as a short sale a few months back, and he had no idea why the listing had been cancelled, the owner didn’t tell him anything about it. I asked him if he had a lease; he said he did not, that they were on a verbal month-to-month arrangement. I got his phone number, and said I’d be in touch after finding out what the bank wanted to do, now knowing that the property is tenant-occupied.

chutes_and_ladders.gif

As I’m driving back home, I got a phone call, from a woman who identified herself as “Lily” (names have been changed to protect the guilty!). Lily explained that she was the owner’s sister, that the owner had asked her to call me – she was kind of agitated, denying the home had been foreclosed on, etc. I asked her, why are you calling me, instead of the former owner? “Uhh…I don’t know, she just asked me to call you.” Hmmm.

And, a day or two later, the former owner did call me. I asked her why she had Lily call me. “She’s the lady I hired to do a loan mod for me,” she replied. Oh. “She said she is your sister,” I told her. “No, she’s not my sister…” OK, at least we’re clear on that. So I said, “You know, it’s a bit funny that you even qualify for a loan mod, since you don’t live there.” She had an answer for that, too: “Oh, but I did live there when I started the loan mod process.” Hmm, sounds a little fishy, since the tenants indicated they had lived there for over a year. I asked her if she had actually paid this woman Lily some money to help her – oh yes, she had. I let her know that there are a lot of scammers in the loan mod business, and that California is cracking down on this, and that these loan mod consultants can’t collect money up front. Perhaps unsurprisingly, she hadn’t heard any of this.

Scam-Alert.jpg

The former owner was interested in having the foreclosure rescinded – this happens all the time, and it’s not really my department, but it does tend to muddy up the Cash for Keys negotiation, as the owner usually tells the tenant not to plan on moving since this issue will be resolved in a few days or weeks, etc. Fortunately, the tenants told me within a few days that she former owner had given up on the loan mod, and so they were clear that they’d need to be moving out.

As it happens, though, the occupants had received a letter from the bank explaining their options – I’d actually also delivered the same letter to them as the client requires me to, and a copy in Spanish as well (the wife/tenant only spoke Spanish). The occupants said hey, we like the 90 Day Option – per current law, tenants in foreclosure get 90 days to remain in the property in the absence of a valid lease. I explained that yes, that’s true, but the bank would prefer they move sooner than that and may be able to help them out with some cash if they can move out before then.

The rental market in the area is very tight – so I indicated I would also try to help find them a place to move to. I do that, sometimes – whatever it takes, that’s my motto. So I’m keeping the eviction coordinator back at the bank apprised of all this, how I’m working to find them a place to move to, etc – and earlier this week he sends me an e-mail saying that the loss mitigator on the file has said that the former owner claims that she is living in the property – so how come I said that it is tenant-occupied?

Why indeed? There are several reasons for that – that’s what I was told by the tenants being first among them. So I called up the tenant and spoke with the wife (as I usually do – I’m completely fluent in Spanish). I said, hey – the bank tells me that the owner says she lives there at the house, is that true? “Oh yes, yes it is” she said. Hmmm. “But when I asked you who all is living at the house, you said it was you, your husband, and you daughter…?” A little pause, “Oh, I thought you meant who in OUR family lives there.” Which is not what I meant – I remember this specifically, asking is there nobody else living there, no members of the military? She thought that was an odd question, but I always ask, since the Service Members Civil Relief Act gives active service members special protections in foreclosure.

“But when I talked to the former owner, she gave me a different phone number than the one you gave me for the house,” I continued. She tenant replied, “Oh, that must be her cell number.” Well, it wasn’t – it had a land-line prefix, and she had said, “This is my home number.” Well, I didn’t want to give her the third degree, so I let it by.

There’s a great web site I use for researching former owners and occupants, pipl.com – you can find out all kinds of interesting things about people there, but it’s also handy for doing reverse lookups of phone numbers, or putting in a property address to see who might live there, etc. So I plugged in the phone number the former owner had given me saying it was her home phone number. In a few seconds, I find that the phone number was connected with a different address in the same city. So I looked up the tax records for that other house, and sure enough – owned by the same person, the former owner of the subject property.

I reported all this back to the eviction coordinator. I told him my suspicion is that the Lily, the “loan modification consultant” had probably told the former owner that in order to get a loan mod, she would have to tell the bank that she lives in the property, and that the former owner in turn told the occupants that if they told me that she lived in the property, she would not lose the house to foreclosure and that they would be able to continue to rent there (which I know they really did not want to move). I also informed the eviction coordinator that all this looks to me like a fraud is being perpetrated here, and asked if there was any more information he needed or if there is anything further I could do.

This morning, he writes back and said that after review, they had determined that no loan workout options exist for the borrower – but that I still need to figure out who exactly is living there so he knows how to proceed.

So let the fun and games begin anew – although I’m pretty sure I know what’s going on here, there may be more to the story than I’m aware, and I need to get to the bottom of it. Working out a cash-for-keys deal is sometimes a breeze, and sometimes, there’s lots of hoops to jump through. It’s all a part of a job which, for all its warts and blisters, is at the very least very rarely boring.

Dig that Septic System…nice!

I know a lot of Realtors out there think that the life of an REO broker is pretty much a cakewalk. Bank calls up, gives you a nice juicy listing, you put it on the market, collect multiple offers, sell it for way over asking, and then just wait til escrow closes and you can pick up your check, after your assistant finishes up all the paperwork for you.

cakewalk3.jpg

Am I right?

Well….sometimes it is like that, but listings like that are few and far between. Even the simplest condo can have it’s share of issues associated with it which requires a steady hand at the helm to keep buyer, seller, and lender all on board until closing. Issues like lack of FHA approval for the complex, insolvent HOA, upcoming assessments – the list goes on.

I had a little fun out in the woods this afternoon. I have a property in escrow where the buyer is asking for a price reduction, to compensate for some repairs the property needs. Never mind that the properties are usually sold as-is and it says so right in the contract – buyers often ask for something. In this case, there was a broken baffle on the septic system, and they wanted a credit for it (among other things).

Before the asset manager would consider granting a reduction based on this (and other) repair, he wanted to see pictures of the damage and get a second bid from another septic company for the repair. That’s a little tricky, because of course the bank (almost) never pays for bids, and the tank was buried in the ground. I found a company to come out and give me a bid on the tank repair – free, provided they didn’t have to dig out the tank – digging out the tank would cost.

I thought about sending my assistant out there with a shovel and asking him to dig it out, but it’s not really in his job description, and I suppose there’s a chance he could get injured. It is, however, in my job description, since my job description is “do whatever it takes to get it closed” (so long as it’s legal and ethical, of course).

septic_baffle.jpg

So out I went with a shovel and, under the warm sun of an Aptos summer, I dug up the tank and pulled off the lids and lo, there was the damaged baffle. Now I have the pictures, just waiting on the bid. All in the glamorous, fun-filled day of an REO broker.

Foreclosures Up, Down, All Around

I don’t know if you’re like me, but sometimes, I’m just bewildered by all the mixed messages. Sometimes you hear foreclosures are up, record-setting – then you hear they’re down, or will be coming down soon – or were down, but now they’re up again.

money-down-the-drain.jpg

Take the latest news courtesy of Bloomberg and RealtyTrac.com:

U.S. Home Seizures Rise 38% to Record as Banks Process Backlog

So the question is, if actual “bank seizures” are up 38% (as opposed to Notices of Default and Notices of Trustee Sale, for example) – why are all the REO agents moaning about how the number of assets they’re carrying is way, way down?

It’s a mystery. Not that much of a mystery, actually – the foreclosures are still coming pretty steady (not as steady as a year ago, though) but they are going out to an ever-expanding pool of agents, most of whom just have one or two REOs here and there. At least that’s how it seems to me here in the greater Silicon Valley area.

Although the Bloomberg article doesn’t go into the number of seizures in California, the Miami Herald is reporting that “repossessions” have jumped about 83% in the first six months of 2010 compared to the first six months in 2009.

The Bloomberg article does cite numbers showing that notices of default in California are down 15 percent from the previous six months and down 13 percent from a year ago. That may signal that the foreclosure epidemic is beginning to wane in California. Or, it may not – for the first time in many months, the median home price in California decreased year-over-year – down 0.5% from June 2009, according to the L.A. Times. Specifically in our area, the article mentions that in the S.F. Bay Area, we registered the third-worst home sale performance in 15 years – but that the median price is 16.5% higher than June 2009.

Up, down, and all around – indeed. I recommend everyone keep their seat belts fastened as we are still in for a bumpy ride!

Office Vacancy Rate at 17 Year High

This morning the web is full of all kinds of doom-and-gloom statistics, showing that we’re not out of the woods yet on this real estate crisis. In fact, there’s a loud chorus of voices saying not only are we not out of the woods yet, we’re actually still going deeper into them. Shiver me timbers!

empty-office2.jpg

There’s also a lot more talk not just about the housing crisis, but the commercial real estate crisis, too. So far, the problems with commercial real estate loans are getting a lot less press than those generated in the residential mortgage market – but you can expect to hear more about troubled commercial loans in the months to come.

Today, for example, Bloomberg is reporting that the office vacancy rate in the U.S. climbs to a 17 year high. Nationwide, office vacancies stand at 17.4 percent, up from 16 percent a year earlier – and the article goes on to state that employers are hiring fewer people than economists had forecast. This is perhaps not surprising to you if you’re waiting in the unemployment line.

Real Housewife Mansion Foreclosure

It may not be pretty, but it’s the truth: I’ve seen my fair share of episodes of The Real Housewives. All of ’em – New York, Orange County, Atlanta – and even the housewives in Jersey. It’s been interesting to watch as many of them have gone through trials and tribulations related to conspicuous over-consumption, but I’d have to say that the most conspicuous of the bunch have been the Giudice family (Teresa and Giuseppe – but you can just call him Joe, everyone else does!) from New Jersey, with their custom-built super-fab mansion on 3.77 acres.

Apparently, but perhaps not surprisingly, the family is losing their dream house to foreclosure. The Zillow Blog has a great entry about it.

Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz002.jpg

In my line of work, I run into all kinds of people who got foreclosed on, and it’s true, many of them came to that unhappy fate by simply spending more than they made – but I have yet to see anyone in my neck of the woods do it on this scale. I know, it’s just the bank that got hurt, right? Never mind the investor (your pension fund, perhaps?) who’s probably going to take a bath on it.

Having said that, I must also say – I wish I could pick up a listing like this! I wonder how much they’ll be offered with cash-for-keys?

REO Market Update for 2010

I did a presentation for a local real estate office a couple of months ago. It took me a while to find a service that would allow me to upload a 20+ minute presentation, YouTube and a variety of others had length limits that would have necessitated cutting it into two segments, and that’s no fun.

It was a talk about the things I picked up at the Spring REOMAC conference. I hope you find it interesting!

Snapz Pro XScreenSnapz001.jpg

Click here to watch the Video!

Pending Home Sales Plummet 30% in May

Your friends at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have some non-news for us today:

Pending Home Sales Drop as Expected

sheep_off_cliff.jpg

And it’s hard to argue with NAR – yes, it was expected that sales would drop after the expiration of the homebuyer tax credits, but I’m not sure that anyone was thinking it would be as much as 30% down. Also in the article, NAR expects sales closings in June to “remain elevated” but drop off in July and August.

But then again, NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun is also predicting that jobs are coming back:

“If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions,” Yun said.

Yun goes on to say that he doesn’t expect any further price drops, and is actually forecasting home prices nationally will rise 4% over the next two years.

Time will tell.